France 1940
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France 1940
What would have happened if the Germans had not adopted Manstein's plan for the invasion of France and the Low Countries. Without German Panzers slicing throught the Ardennes, would France have survived?
1940
Interesting thought! I do not think so, because of the miserable generalship and the outdated materiel. Furthermore, the war was not all that popular in France, because they had no Goebbels to whip up their enthusiasm about righting a wrong (Versailles).
No doubt, the war would have been much bloodier than it was. For a major war, the losses on both sides were minimal, considering the numbers of personnel involved.
Just my thought. Joscha
No doubt, the war would have been much bloodier than it was. For a major war, the losses on both sides were minimal, considering the numbers of personnel involved.
Just my thought. Joscha
I think that the possibility would have been high that the war in the West would have ended up in stalemate. Much like in the First World War. The original German plan, before Manstein's idea was odopted, was to just go through Belgium, just like in WWI.
This would not work because this is where the British and French expected them to go. This is why the BEF and French forces were fooled by Manstein's plan, they all ran up near Belgium expecting the main German attack there and then all of a sudden all this armour starts plowing through from the Ardennes!
I think the Offensive succeeded because of Manstein's plan and if they went along with the other unoriginal plan it would not have worked. The French might still have had some problems dealing with the German Panzers but there was still the BEF and more British and Canadian reinforcements to send. These were not able to be sent in May of 1940 because of the speed of the German Panzers. If the Offensive was slowed down than there would be time for reinforcements to be sent.
The real success of the Manstein plan was the speed in which it was executed.
Cheers,
Wolfkin
This would not work because this is where the British and French expected them to go. This is why the BEF and French forces were fooled by Manstein's plan, they all ran up near Belgium expecting the main German attack there and then all of a sudden all this armour starts plowing through from the Ardennes!
I think the Offensive succeeded because of Manstein's plan and if they went along with the other unoriginal plan it would not have worked. The French might still have had some problems dealing with the German Panzers but there was still the BEF and more British and Canadian reinforcements to send. These were not able to be sent in May of 1940 because of the speed of the German Panzers. If the Offensive was slowed down than there would be time for reinforcements to be sent.
The real success of the Manstein plan was the speed in which it was executed.
Cheers,
Wolfkin
Amateurs limit their study to either Tactics, Strategy or Logistics. Professionals study ALL THREE of these!!!
The way I see it, both armies were relatively equal in size, and both had approximately the same number of tanks.
The German Panzer divisions were better organized and operated under a superior operational doctrine.
The only obvious advantage (other than armor doctrine) was in the air. The Luftwaffe was superior to the French airforce and what few RAF aircraft that were spared for the battle.
I can easily see the Germans sweeping the allies out of Belguim and Holland and deep into France. Only to be stopped short of Paris.
In other words, the initial invasion may run out of steam in the same area the Germans were halted in WWI. The diffrence being, a second offensive might be able to break the back of the French Army.
So, the battle of France lasts longer, but still ends in a French defeat.
The German Panzer divisions were better organized and operated under a superior operational doctrine.
The only obvious advantage (other than armor doctrine) was in the air. The Luftwaffe was superior to the French airforce and what few RAF aircraft that were spared for the battle.
I can easily see the Germans sweeping the allies out of Belguim and Holland and deep into France. Only to be stopped short of Paris.
In other words, the initial invasion may run out of steam in the same area the Germans were halted in WWI. The diffrence being, a second offensive might be able to break the back of the French Army.
So, the battle of France lasts longer, but still ends in a French defeat.
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Henrik Krog
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Article
Command Magazine had a hypothetical in their big article on France 1940 in their March 1997 issue. I transcribe (first part now, second later):
....its then fair to ask what would have been the outcome in May and June 1940 if the Germans had stuck with their original plan for the invasion of the west, that outlined in the Fuehrer Directive no 8.
First, theres no reason to belive the total number of forces involved would have been any different. The Allies would still have committed 52 divisions (invluding Belgiums and the Netherlands armies) to their Dyle plan, with seven divisions in reserve. The 66 German divisions initially attacking, plus 13 in reserve, would have grown to 75, along with an invreased high command reserveof 30 more divisions to be sent to the army groups as opportunities presented themselves.
We are then presented with the first real variable. Operation Yellow originally called for Army Group B, in the north, to have 40 divisions, seven of them panzer and four motorized infantry. Army Group A was to have had only 22 divisions, only two panzer and one motorized. But an 11 division reserve was also to have been assinged there. Assuming the 14th Motorised corps (9 panzer along with the 13th and 20th motorised infantry divisions) started in reserve, we still can assume some of the additional divisions would have been committed to the initial offensive, with a reverse of the totals of the historical Manstein plan seeming most reasonable. Thus Army Group B would have attacked with 45 divisions, and Army Group A with 30. From that we can postulate, conservatively, the changed scenario playing out as follows.
10 May - The Germans open their offensive with aerial attacks on Allied fighter fields and parachute drops in Holland and on Belgian fort Eben Emael. The Allies respond by moving into Belgium. Guderians 19th Panzer Corps advances west more than 50 miles along the Belgian/Dutch border.
12 May - Guderians three panzer divisions succeed in cutting off the three motorized divisions of the French 7th army that have advanced into Holland by the end of 10 May. The Belgian army continues to fall back under heavy pressure from two German armies. Parts of 5 Belgian divisions are encircled by 15th and 41st Panzer Corps.
13 May - Antwerp falls to the Germans late in the day. The Allied left is threatened by the five panzer divisions of 19th and 41st Panzer Corps. The BEF is engaged heavily for the first time, but repulses all German attacks along the Dyle. That eveningthe first German troops cross te Mause at Sedan. Hitler orders 14th Motorized corps released from reserve and committed to the Ardennes sector.
15 May - The Dutch army surrenders. Guderians panzers continueto pressure the Allied left, threatening Genth. The Germans have eight divisions over the Mause between Sedan and Montherme
17 May - The Allies launch twin counterattacks, the British pushing into German 6th Army south of Antwers, while the French strike along the Meuse at Sedan. Both efforts make gains and ar only stopped when the Germans desperately bring their 88mm flak guns into action as anti-tank weapons. The Germans lose over 200 tanks in the days battle, the Allies almost as many.
19 May - The two day old French counterattack at Sedan is crushed as tanks from 3rd and 9th Panzer divisions meet along the Ardennes Canal, trapping three divisions of the French 18th Corps, including their 2nd Armored division. South of Brussels, Rommels 7th Panzer Divisions drives into the flank of the British 50th Infantry Division, destroying the truckborne brigade and capturing most of BEF 2nd Corps artillery. German infantry continue to engange Allied troops all along the front. A Dangerous bulge begins to form in the Allied line as the French and Belgian troops fall back on both sides of the BEF.
20 May - Ghent falls to 41st Panzer Corps after the Belgian 18th Infantry Division breaks. The Belgian Cavalry Corps is destroyed trying to stop the Germans, while French 7th Army is routed by 19th Panzer Corps and units of 18th Army. Ostend falls to the Germans by the evening. At Sedan, French 2nd Army breaks and the six German mobile divisions of their 14th and 16th Corps flood through the Gap.
21 May - The British bulge is cut off, trapping three divisions eas of Brussels. The Belgian capital is thretened. Guderians panzers cross into France at the coast, then turn south. Units of the Grossdeutschland Motorized Infantry Regimentcross the Sambre River south of tMonths, threateningall of 1st Army Group with encirclement.
22 May - British Prime minister Winston CHurchill orders a general withdrawal of the BEF from central Belgium. The three encircled divisions of 1st Corps fight their way out, but have to abandon most of their equipment and are reduced to brigade strength in manpower. Churchill also feels compelled to order virtually all reserve Royal Air Force planes to France, and authorizes the organisation of "Force Hastings", made up of the 1st Armored, 1st Canadian, 2nd Canadian and 51st Infantry Divisions, to prepare for action against the panzer spearheads.
25 May - German troops from 14th and 41st Corps link up west of Mons, but are unable to entirely block strong counterattacks delivered there by Force Hastings. Four Allied armies struggle to free themselves from the pocket formed in central Belgium, from north to south they are: the Belgian army, the BEF and the French 1st and 9th
2 June - After a week of heavy fighting around whats now called the Mons pocket, the Germans entirely crush that Kessel. German casualties are heavy, but the four traped Allied armies, along with virtually all their remaining equipment and supplies, fall into the invaders hands. The Panzers, withdrawn from the frontline on 20 May to regroup, prepare to resume the offensive.
4 June - The Germans renew their offensive, this time attacking from all along the French-Belgian border. The French 7th ARmy is quickly surrounded and crushed by five panzer and three motorized divisions. The surviving part of the BEF is again heavily engaged.
12 June - The Allies make it back to the Somme/Aisne line, but the attack begun three days earlier by German ARmy Group C pins down remaining French reserves behind the Maginot Line. Both sides are nearing exhaustion. In the evening, the Germans commit their last theater reserves, 10 infantry divisions formed into 3 corps.
14 June - The Somme/Aisne line ruptures and the panzer divisions - by this time greatly reduced in strength - race for the Sine north of Paris. The BEF, reduced to less than half its original strength, asks for new instructions from London. Churchill responds by ordering the BEFs command, Lord Gort, to do everything possible to maintain contact witht he French forces reeling on either side of him. Three territorial divisions are sent to Normandy to cover an evacuation of the BEF through there should such a move become necessary.
19 June - German pressure continues on the Allied left, forcing the Sine from Paris to the sea. The BEF moves to new positions west of the capital. German 1st Army threatens Verdun behind the Maginot Line.
22 June - Paris is occupied by troops of the German 9th Army. Infantry from 2nd Panzer Divisions clear the British from Caen. The first evacuees from the BEF are taken off at Cherbourg
....its then fair to ask what would have been the outcome in May and June 1940 if the Germans had stuck with their original plan for the invasion of the west, that outlined in the Fuehrer Directive no 8.
First, theres no reason to belive the total number of forces involved would have been any different. The Allies would still have committed 52 divisions (invluding Belgiums and the Netherlands armies) to their Dyle plan, with seven divisions in reserve. The 66 German divisions initially attacking, plus 13 in reserve, would have grown to 75, along with an invreased high command reserveof 30 more divisions to be sent to the army groups as opportunities presented themselves.
We are then presented with the first real variable. Operation Yellow originally called for Army Group B, in the north, to have 40 divisions, seven of them panzer and four motorized infantry. Army Group A was to have had only 22 divisions, only two panzer and one motorized. But an 11 division reserve was also to have been assinged there. Assuming the 14th Motorised corps (9 panzer along with the 13th and 20th motorised infantry divisions) started in reserve, we still can assume some of the additional divisions would have been committed to the initial offensive, with a reverse of the totals of the historical Manstein plan seeming most reasonable. Thus Army Group B would have attacked with 45 divisions, and Army Group A with 30. From that we can postulate, conservatively, the changed scenario playing out as follows.
10 May - The Germans open their offensive with aerial attacks on Allied fighter fields and parachute drops in Holland and on Belgian fort Eben Emael. The Allies respond by moving into Belgium. Guderians 19th Panzer Corps advances west more than 50 miles along the Belgian/Dutch border.
12 May - Guderians three panzer divisions succeed in cutting off the three motorized divisions of the French 7th army that have advanced into Holland by the end of 10 May. The Belgian army continues to fall back under heavy pressure from two German armies. Parts of 5 Belgian divisions are encircled by 15th and 41st Panzer Corps.
13 May - Antwerp falls to the Germans late in the day. The Allied left is threatened by the five panzer divisions of 19th and 41st Panzer Corps. The BEF is engaged heavily for the first time, but repulses all German attacks along the Dyle. That eveningthe first German troops cross te Mause at Sedan. Hitler orders 14th Motorized corps released from reserve and committed to the Ardennes sector.
15 May - The Dutch army surrenders. Guderians panzers continueto pressure the Allied left, threatening Genth. The Germans have eight divisions over the Mause between Sedan and Montherme
17 May - The Allies launch twin counterattacks, the British pushing into German 6th Army south of Antwers, while the French strike along the Meuse at Sedan. Both efforts make gains and ar only stopped when the Germans desperately bring their 88mm flak guns into action as anti-tank weapons. The Germans lose over 200 tanks in the days battle, the Allies almost as many.
19 May - The two day old French counterattack at Sedan is crushed as tanks from 3rd and 9th Panzer divisions meet along the Ardennes Canal, trapping three divisions of the French 18th Corps, including their 2nd Armored division. South of Brussels, Rommels 7th Panzer Divisions drives into the flank of the British 50th Infantry Division, destroying the truckborne brigade and capturing most of BEF 2nd Corps artillery. German infantry continue to engange Allied troops all along the front. A Dangerous bulge begins to form in the Allied line as the French and Belgian troops fall back on both sides of the BEF.
20 May - Ghent falls to 41st Panzer Corps after the Belgian 18th Infantry Division breaks. The Belgian Cavalry Corps is destroyed trying to stop the Germans, while French 7th Army is routed by 19th Panzer Corps and units of 18th Army. Ostend falls to the Germans by the evening. At Sedan, French 2nd Army breaks and the six German mobile divisions of their 14th and 16th Corps flood through the Gap.
21 May - The British bulge is cut off, trapping three divisions eas of Brussels. The Belgian capital is thretened. Guderians panzers cross into France at the coast, then turn south. Units of the Grossdeutschland Motorized Infantry Regimentcross the Sambre River south of tMonths, threateningall of 1st Army Group with encirclement.
22 May - British Prime minister Winston CHurchill orders a general withdrawal of the BEF from central Belgium. The three encircled divisions of 1st Corps fight their way out, but have to abandon most of their equipment and are reduced to brigade strength in manpower. Churchill also feels compelled to order virtually all reserve Royal Air Force planes to France, and authorizes the organisation of "Force Hastings", made up of the 1st Armored, 1st Canadian, 2nd Canadian and 51st Infantry Divisions, to prepare for action against the panzer spearheads.
25 May - German troops from 14th and 41st Corps link up west of Mons, but are unable to entirely block strong counterattacks delivered there by Force Hastings. Four Allied armies struggle to free themselves from the pocket formed in central Belgium, from north to south they are: the Belgian army, the BEF and the French 1st and 9th
2 June - After a week of heavy fighting around whats now called the Mons pocket, the Germans entirely crush that Kessel. German casualties are heavy, but the four traped Allied armies, along with virtually all their remaining equipment and supplies, fall into the invaders hands. The Panzers, withdrawn from the frontline on 20 May to regroup, prepare to resume the offensive.
4 June - The Germans renew their offensive, this time attacking from all along the French-Belgian border. The French 7th ARmy is quickly surrounded and crushed by five panzer and three motorized divisions. The surviving part of the BEF is again heavily engaged.
12 June - The Allies make it back to the Somme/Aisne line, but the attack begun three days earlier by German ARmy Group C pins down remaining French reserves behind the Maginot Line. Both sides are nearing exhaustion. In the evening, the Germans commit their last theater reserves, 10 infantry divisions formed into 3 corps.
14 June - The Somme/Aisne line ruptures and the panzer divisions - by this time greatly reduced in strength - race for the Sine north of Paris. The BEF, reduced to less than half its original strength, asks for new instructions from London. Churchill responds by ordering the BEFs command, Lord Gort, to do everything possible to maintain contact witht he French forces reeling on either side of him. Three territorial divisions are sent to Normandy to cover an evacuation of the BEF through there should such a move become necessary.
19 June - German pressure continues on the Allied left, forcing the Sine from Paris to the sea. The BEF moves to new positions west of the capital. German 1st Army threatens Verdun behind the Maginot Line.
22 June - Paris is occupied by troops of the German 9th Army. Infantry from 2nd Panzer Divisions clear the British from Caen. The first evacuees from the BEF are taken off at Cherbourg
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Henrik Krog
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2nd Part
First off, let me apologise for the many spelling errors, but the article is so big that I, rather than looking back and forth between article and monitor, chose to keep my eyes on the article and write blindly.
About my absence as of late, my monitor crashed and burned. Given that the one Im at right now is borrowed, and that I will head to the US and Canada for 3 weeks on thursday, I will probably be showing up little if at all in that time, too. My longest absence from Jasons forums so far. Hope I can handle it :-)
Anyway, second (and much smaller) part of the hypothetical:
25 June - The Allied armies are split apart when the panzers take Avranches and drive into Brittany. Rommels 7th Panzer Division enters St. Nazaire just before midnight, captureing the French Battleship Jean Bart intact at the dock. The British continue falling back on Cherbourg.
29 June - The last British troops on the continent are evacuated before dawn and Cherbourg falls to troops of the 13th and 20th Motorized Divisions. In seven weeks of battle the British have lost a quarter million men killed or captured out of the 400.000 they committed, along with almost all their units transport and heavy equipment. Fighter command is reduced to less than 200 aircraft, though they still retain about twice that number in trained pilots.
7 July - The French government asks for an armistice, while fighting still rages across the eastern part of the country and behind the Maginot Line.
9 July - The panzer forces, now reduced to less than 1000 operational vehicles, pushes down the Biscay coast, taking La Rochelle on the 10th and Bordeaux 2 days later. The armistice is signed at noon on 13 July to go into effect on the 14th, Bastille Day.
If the scenario described above, or something approximating it, had been played out in the spring and summer of 1940, what would have been the longer range results? Even with the British standing army largely destroyed and the RAF heavily reduced, its still unlikely the Germans could have crossed the Channel for an amphibious invasion that autumn - their surface fleet had simply been too battered in Norway.
For 1941, however, we can estimate the events that took place historically across North Africa would be greatly altered. The British army could not have ben anywhere near as effective as it was, and Rommel would thereby have been able to achieve greater success, perhaps getting as far as the Nile. At the same time, the British would likely also have been to weak to intervene in Greece, making for a shorter, easier German conquest of the Balkans.
Following such a successful, though much bloodier, campaign of 1940, the Germans would have had to make some of the same decision then they put off historically until 1941/42. Production of the Mark II probably would have been eliminated, while the Mark III and IVs would have received their heavier armor and armament a year earlier. Also prompted by the same heavy losses, the Nazi leadership may well have switched Germany to a full wartime economy two years earlier than they actually did.
Perhaps, then, we should give thanks to the brilliance of Erich von Manstein. His plan produced a German victory so easil the Nazi leadership believed there were no hard lessons to be learned from it, and so didnt look for any.
Something I feel that the author overlooks is the possibility that the Greeks, lacking British help, might very well have given in to German mediation efforts between Italy and themselves. With Greece removed from the equation, the coup in Yugoslavia probably wouldndt have happened. And even if it did, crushing it would be easier than going after Yugoslavia AND Greece. Result: you get another couple of weeks in which to attack the USSR.
Food for thought - harder France 1940 invasion -> easier USSR 1941 invasion
Henrik
About my absence as of late, my monitor crashed and burned. Given that the one Im at right now is borrowed, and that I will head to the US and Canada for 3 weeks on thursday, I will probably be showing up little if at all in that time, too. My longest absence from Jasons forums so far. Hope I can handle it :-)
Anyway, second (and much smaller) part of the hypothetical:
25 June - The Allied armies are split apart when the panzers take Avranches and drive into Brittany. Rommels 7th Panzer Division enters St. Nazaire just before midnight, captureing the French Battleship Jean Bart intact at the dock. The British continue falling back on Cherbourg.
29 June - The last British troops on the continent are evacuated before dawn and Cherbourg falls to troops of the 13th and 20th Motorized Divisions. In seven weeks of battle the British have lost a quarter million men killed or captured out of the 400.000 they committed, along with almost all their units transport and heavy equipment. Fighter command is reduced to less than 200 aircraft, though they still retain about twice that number in trained pilots.
7 July - The French government asks for an armistice, while fighting still rages across the eastern part of the country and behind the Maginot Line.
9 July - The panzer forces, now reduced to less than 1000 operational vehicles, pushes down the Biscay coast, taking La Rochelle on the 10th and Bordeaux 2 days later. The armistice is signed at noon on 13 July to go into effect on the 14th, Bastille Day.
If the scenario described above, or something approximating it, had been played out in the spring and summer of 1940, what would have been the longer range results? Even with the British standing army largely destroyed and the RAF heavily reduced, its still unlikely the Germans could have crossed the Channel for an amphibious invasion that autumn - their surface fleet had simply been too battered in Norway.
For 1941, however, we can estimate the events that took place historically across North Africa would be greatly altered. The British army could not have ben anywhere near as effective as it was, and Rommel would thereby have been able to achieve greater success, perhaps getting as far as the Nile. At the same time, the British would likely also have been to weak to intervene in Greece, making for a shorter, easier German conquest of the Balkans.
Following such a successful, though much bloodier, campaign of 1940, the Germans would have had to make some of the same decision then they put off historically until 1941/42. Production of the Mark II probably would have been eliminated, while the Mark III and IVs would have received their heavier armor and armament a year earlier. Also prompted by the same heavy losses, the Nazi leadership may well have switched Germany to a full wartime economy two years earlier than they actually did.
Perhaps, then, we should give thanks to the brilliance of Erich von Manstein. His plan produced a German victory so easil the Nazi leadership believed there were no hard lessons to be learned from it, and so didnt look for any.
Something I feel that the author overlooks is the possibility that the Greeks, lacking British help, might very well have given in to German mediation efforts between Italy and themselves. With Greece removed from the equation, the coup in Yugoslavia probably wouldndt have happened. And even if it did, crushing it would be easier than going after Yugoslavia AND Greece. Result: you get another couple of weeks in which to attack the USSR.
Food for thought - harder France 1940 invasion -> easier USSR 1941 invasion
Henrik
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Henrik Krog
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Command MAgazine
Unfortunately, Command Magazine has gone down.
I began buying it after discovering it when I was in the military in ca 1996. They disappeared from the magazine racks many places in around early 1999, replaced by collecting cards and that kind of junk that promised faster profits. Here in Denmark, that created so little volume, that they stopped importing it altogether.
As a result, they lost between half and two thirds their sales (the rest was subscription).
I signed up for a subscription, but they gave in after struggling on for another 2 years. I was promised the last issue for labor day last year, 4-6 months late, but never received it.
Too bad. Except for the last issue or two, they generally provided enormously good, in-depth articles on a variety of subjects. Of course, being an American magazine, they have the invariable Civil War battles that dont interest me, but they also had intensive coverage of all kinds of other wars. It was, for example, where I found out about the 1977 Libyan-Egyptian war.
Overall an enormously good publication, so if you ever find back issues, do two things:
1) Buy all you can
2) Notify me :-)
I still have very large holes in my collection, so will look all I can into used-books and magazine shops when I go to the US.
Anyway, have to to
Yours
Henrik
I began buying it after discovering it when I was in the military in ca 1996. They disappeared from the magazine racks many places in around early 1999, replaced by collecting cards and that kind of junk that promised faster profits. Here in Denmark, that created so little volume, that they stopped importing it altogether.
As a result, they lost between half and two thirds their sales (the rest was subscription).
I signed up for a subscription, but they gave in after struggling on for another 2 years. I was promised the last issue for labor day last year, 4-6 months late, but never received it.
Too bad. Except for the last issue or two, they generally provided enormously good, in-depth articles on a variety of subjects. Of course, being an American magazine, they have the invariable Civil War battles that dont interest me, but they also had intensive coverage of all kinds of other wars. It was, for example, where I found out about the 1977 Libyan-Egyptian war.
Overall an enormously good publication, so if you ever find back issues, do two things:
1) Buy all you can
2) Notify me :-)
I still have very large holes in my collection, so will look all I can into used-books and magazine shops when I go to the US.
Anyway, have to to
Yours
Henrik