Hello,
A question I have been pondering for a while was: Was it inevitable that Germany and the Soviet Union fight? At times I was under the impression that because of ideology, both sides saw the other as the principal enemy. I've heard indications that Stalin might have planned an offensive war against Germany as a pre-emptive measure or that his expansionist policies prior to Barbarossa was intended to create an advanced frontier against a German invasion. Was Hitler's decision to invade in the summer of 1941 a pre-emptive strike or was it motivated mainly by a perception of stalemate with Britain allowing him to take down the Soviet Union while the West front was in a lull?
Cordially,
Freiritter
Was War with the Soviets Inevitable?
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Freiritter
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Was War with the Soviets Inevitable?
Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics.
Why Freiritter, didn't you see "Red Dawn?" Everything is explained perfectly by the American pilot to the Wolverines: "Had to happen...Two biggest guys on the block - pretty soon they're gonna fight..."
Not to mention Stalin's plan to invade Germany by '43 or '44. Hitler of course, was not likely to let those nasty Bolsheviks hang out too long on his side of the European street either. Remember - these weren't rational folks - they were sure enough wackos and it was gonna happen!
cheers
Reb
Not to mention Stalin's plan to invade Germany by '43 or '44. Hitler of course, was not likely to let those nasty Bolsheviks hang out too long on his side of the European street either. Remember - these weren't rational folks - they were sure enough wackos and it was gonna happen!
cheers
Reb
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Freiritter
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Hello,
Yep, I've seen Red Dawn. One of my favorite Cold War-era movies. If anything about WWII was pretty much pre-ordained, it was a German-Soviet war. It also seems to me that the German-Soviet war in the East was darn near a separate war from the war against the Western Allies. Hence I usually distinguish between the two in my posts.
Cordially,
Freiritter
Yep, I've seen Red Dawn. One of my favorite Cold War-era movies. If anything about WWII was pretty much pre-ordained, it was a German-Soviet war. It also seems to me that the German-Soviet war in the East was darn near a separate war from the war against the Western Allies. Hence I usually distinguish between the two in my posts.
Cordially,
Freiritter
Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics.
Reply to Freiritter.
First of all I don't think anything is inevitable. I think it's for a cold war like stance to develop between the two powers but a "hot" war MIGHT have been avoidable. Now to your question as to what motivated Hitler. After studying this and talking about it for a few years now I'm convinced that Hitler's invasion of Russia was for strategic reasons. The plans were intiated in late July 1940 - even before the battle of Britain! Hitler continuously explained that an invasion of Britain most likely wasn't going to happen. The longer the war with Britain drug on the stronger the British would be because of support from the US - at the same time Germany would become more dependant on Russia. Hitler thought it might be possible to simply continue the war against Britain with a blockade strategy. He assessed Stalin as "clever and cautious" and the SU in general as being weak. On the other hand there was always the possibility that Russian good will might run out and if trade deliveries were withheld it would be disastrous for the German economy, there was also of course the potential for Russia to invade as well. Hitler thus found himself confronted with a choice - continue the war against Britain while relying on Stalin and facing the possible intervention of the US or take the resources for himself and his dependance on Stalin's good graces. Hitler opted for the latter and was further bolstered in this view by the underestimation of the Red army, thanks to faulty intelligence, and a bad meeting with Soviet foreign minister Molotov, in November .Was Hitler's decision to invade in the summer of 1941 a pre-emptive strike or was it motivated mainly by a perception of stalemate with Britain allowing him to take down the Soviet Union while the West front was in a lull?
Hitler and Barbarosa
valadezaj,
He also looked down on the Soviet Union all along. During his rise to power his main opponent between wars was the Communists. The Soviet Union was land that he wanted so German farmers could plough the land and he also wanted their vast resources.
Since he didn't think highly of the slavs, he didn't think highly of the Soviet Union or her fighting ablility. As you stated faulty intellegence also played a role. He was so confident of another quick victory that his Army had no winter clothing.
He also looked down on the Soviet Union all along. During his rise to power his main opponent between wars was the Communists. The Soviet Union was land that he wanted so German farmers could plough the land and he also wanted their vast resources.
Since he didn't think highly of the slavs, he didn't think highly of the Soviet Union or her fighting ablility. As you stated faulty intellegence also played a role. He was so confident of another quick victory that his Army had no winter clothing.
To those who fought reguardless of nationality
Reply to Bittrich.
I agree with you that Hitler looked down on the Slavs. However, even knowing the outcome I'm still torn on whether or not Hitler's decision was right. If one looks at things superficially it was a great blunder but if one looks deeper the invasion does hold a kind of logic. The first question is whether or nor Britain could have been beaten. I honestly think an invasion simply wouldn't be possible. There were two strategies left that went in hand in hand with each other. The first was the use of U boats and the second the war in Northern Africa. The aim of both was starve the British into surrender by blockade. The goal of the first was to physically sink British shipping and the latter to reach Egypt and cut off the Suez canal. Hitler never really seemed to put much stock in these strategies. He hinted that they might succeed but would take too long. Time he always said was running against Germany. The strategy Hitler wanted to pursue was knock out Russia, claiming she was "Britain's last hope." The fall of Russia would then free Japan to distract the US thereby isolating Britain. The British seeing themselves alone would then surrender. There were advantages and disadvantages to such a strategy.
Advantages
1. Don't have to depend on Stalin for resources.
2. In line with over all German war aims - the domination of the continent, particularly Russia.
3. Can bring a quick end to the war.
4. Don't have to risk invading Britain.
Disadvantages
1. A major strain on Germany's economy and industry.
2. Makes Germany vulnerable to a two front war.
Looking at the above it still seems a difficult choice. Stalin couldn't be trusted but Hitler seemed to think of the SU as more of a nuisance then a threat. It is unclear what he thought of the US. It seems Hitler didn't think they would actually be able to fight but they could supply Britain and help get through Germany's blockade. It is possible that Hitler feared a wearing down of Germany. With Britain growing stronger on US supplies and the SU moblizing more of it's resources. He hinted at this in part of his letter to Mussolini:
Of course Hitler didn't forsee all of this in July, 1940. The plans seemed to have been originally based on the facts that: One Britain couldn't be invaded, two Stalin threatened Germany's oil, and three Britain was trying draw the SU onto it's side and Stalin was listening. As time passed the threat from the SU died down but the overall strategic position hadn't changed. Britain still couldn't be invaded, the US was staying close Britain, and Stalin still couldn't be trusted. I am not sure whether or not Hitler's final decision was based on the meeting with Molotov. Looking at the meeting itself it seems that Hitler desired an (at least temporary) understanding. However his directive for the day said to continue the war preparations "reagardless of the out come". Some people have tried to get around this by saying the wording of the directive is ambiguous. Anyhow the point is Hitler chose the moment for the war based on his own strategic and ideological calculations. What Stalin did was pretty much irrelevant. Since the evidence shows that Stalin, at the time anyway, wished to avoid war it seems clear that it could have either been postponed or avoided altogether. Whether or not Germany would be able to win the war is another matter. I can only see a stalemate or intervention from the US or SU to finish Germany off. It may be that Germany's only real chance to have an outright victory was to seize the resources of the SU. Only then could Germany be able to keep up with a Britain being supplied by the US.
Advantages
1. Don't have to depend on Stalin for resources.
2. In line with over all German war aims - the domination of the continent, particularly Russia.
3. Can bring a quick end to the war.
4. Don't have to risk invading Britain.
Disadvantages
1. A major strain on Germany's economy and industry.
2. Makes Germany vulnerable to a two front war.
Looking at the above it still seems a difficult choice. Stalin couldn't be trusted but Hitler seemed to think of the SU as more of a nuisance then a threat. It is unclear what he thought of the US. It seems Hitler didn't think they would actually be able to fight but they could supply Britain and help get through Germany's blockade. It is possible that Hitler feared a wearing down of Germany. With Britain growing stronger on US supplies and the SU moblizing more of it's resources. He hinted at this in part of his letter to Mussolini:
If circumstances should give me cause to employ the German air force against England, there is danger that Russia will then begin its strategy of extortion in the South and North, to which I would have to yield in silence, simply from a feeling of air inferiority. It would, above all, not then be possible for me, without adequate support from an air force, to attack the Russian fortifications with the divisions stationed in the East. If I do not wish to expose myself to this danger, then perhaps the whole year of 1941 will go by without any change in the general situation. On the contrary. England will be all the less ready for peace for it will be able to pin its hopes on the Russian partner. Indeed, this hope must naturally even grow with the progress in preparedness of the Russian armed forces. And behind this is the mass delivery of war material from America which they hope to get in 1942.
Of course Hitler didn't forsee all of this in July, 1940. The plans seemed to have been originally based on the facts that: One Britain couldn't be invaded, two Stalin threatened Germany's oil, and three Britain was trying draw the SU onto it's side and Stalin was listening. As time passed the threat from the SU died down but the overall strategic position hadn't changed. Britain still couldn't be invaded, the US was staying close Britain, and Stalin still couldn't be trusted. I am not sure whether or not Hitler's final decision was based on the meeting with Molotov. Looking at the meeting itself it seems that Hitler desired an (at least temporary) understanding. However his directive for the day said to continue the war preparations "reagardless of the out come". Some people have tried to get around this by saying the wording of the directive is ambiguous. Anyhow the point is Hitler chose the moment for the war based on his own strategic and ideological calculations. What Stalin did was pretty much irrelevant. Since the evidence shows that Stalin, at the time anyway, wished to avoid war it seems clear that it could have either been postponed or avoided altogether. Whether or not Germany would be able to win the war is another matter. I can only see a stalemate or intervention from the US or SU to finish Germany off. It may be that Germany's only real chance to have an outright victory was to seize the resources of the SU. Only then could Germany be able to keep up with a Britain being supplied by the US.
Barbarosa
valadezaj,
I agree with most of your points, but wonder if Hitler had enough respect for the Soviet Union and its people to have considered such options. From all I have seen on his rantings about the Soviet Union would imply he felt that the conquest in the east would be easy. He seemed to have thought that the outcome would be similar to World War One.
It is a matter of debate, but his strategy for the Soviets would have been more successful had Heydrich not released his Einsatzgruppen to follow behind. The people in the Ukraine and Baltic countries probably would have enlisted in the Wehrmacht had the Germans not been so stupid. Would it have changed the outcome is hard to say, but they would have at least more men and material. The point is I don't think he thought too highly of those people he choose to invade.
Finally with the German Army success up to this point, I don't think he felt they could be stopped. Of course up to the Soviet Union the conquered countries did not have the vastness of the Ukraine, Russia, etc..
Hitler may have been smarter than we know and may have reached all the conclusions you have stated, but from what I've seen and the way the Germans conducted themselves during Barbarosa donesn't tend to give much weight to such arguments. To me it is absurd to not plan properly for an invasion. For example plan winter clothing, cold weather lubricants, etc.
I agree with most of your points, but wonder if Hitler had enough respect for the Soviet Union and its people to have considered such options. From all I have seen on his rantings about the Soviet Union would imply he felt that the conquest in the east would be easy. He seemed to have thought that the outcome would be similar to World War One.
It is a matter of debate, but his strategy for the Soviets would have been more successful had Heydrich not released his Einsatzgruppen to follow behind. The people in the Ukraine and Baltic countries probably would have enlisted in the Wehrmacht had the Germans not been so stupid. Would it have changed the outcome is hard to say, but they would have at least more men and material. The point is I don't think he thought too highly of those people he choose to invade.
Finally with the German Army success up to this point, I don't think he felt they could be stopped. Of course up to the Soviet Union the conquered countries did not have the vastness of the Ukraine, Russia, etc..
Hitler may have been smarter than we know and may have reached all the conclusions you have stated, but from what I've seen and the way the Germans conducted themselves during Barbarosa donesn't tend to give much weight to such arguments. To me it is absurd to not plan properly for an invasion. For example plan winter clothing, cold weather lubricants, etc.
To those who fought reguardless of nationality
Reply.
How smart Hitler was is of course open to debate. However from what I've read Hitler's own generals believed the SU could be defeated easily. This was based on arrogance and faulty intelligence. The generals main qualms were that they believed the SU could be held at bay diplomatically and that a war in the east was simply uncessary. They did however become more open to the idea after the bad meeting with Molotov.
Hitler and Barbarosa
valadezaj,
I believe he said something refering to the Soviet Union along the lines of kick the door in and the whole system will collapse. At any rate from what I've read I agree with you that Hitler thought that the Soviet Union could be easily defeated.
I believe he said something refering to the Soviet Union along the lines of kick the door in and the whole system will collapse. At any rate from what I've read I agree with you that Hitler thought that the Soviet Union could be easily defeated.
To those who fought reguardless of nationality
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Freiritter
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Hello,
Actually, the Soviet Union was collapsing politically in the non-Russian republics, during the Barbarossa invasion, since the Communists were suppressing nationalist movements in the Ukraine for example. Only National Socialist racial policy in the East prevented the oppressed nationalities from fully supporting the German war effort. Even though the Ukrainians, the Baltic States, Cossacks and even Russians were found in German service. From what I hear, there were defections of whole Red Army units to the Germans up to 1943, I think.
I think the assumption of perceived Soviet political frailty was based on the experiences of the Ostfront in WWI, when four years of frustration and finally political/logistical collapse brought on the Red delegation to Brest-Litovsk in 1918.
Cordially,
Freiritter
Actually, the Soviet Union was collapsing politically in the non-Russian republics, during the Barbarossa invasion, since the Communists were suppressing nationalist movements in the Ukraine for example. Only National Socialist racial policy in the East prevented the oppressed nationalities from fully supporting the German war effort. Even though the Ukrainians, the Baltic States, Cossacks and even Russians were found in German service. From what I hear, there were defections of whole Red Army units to the Germans up to 1943, I think.
I think the assumption of perceived Soviet political frailty was based on the experiences of the Ostfront in WWI, when four years of frustration and finally political/logistical collapse brought on the Red delegation to Brest-Litovsk in 1918.
Cordially,
Freiritter
Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics.
Russo-German War
Freiritter,
I agree with your post. Had Heydrich not released his goons they probably would have had more help in the Ukraine, Belorus, etc.. As for your comments those are reasons I believe that a war between Germany and the Soviet Union were unavoidable.
I agree with your post. Had Heydrich not released his goons they probably would have had more help in the Ukraine, Belorus, etc.. As for your comments those are reasons I believe that a war between Germany and the Soviet Union were unavoidable.
Last edited by Bittrich on Fri Jul 29, 2005 9:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
To those who fought reguardless of nationality
Reb. There's nothing really new about this.
We have known for decades that Stalin specifically spoke on May 5, 1941, about the inevitability of a clash with Germany in 1942 at the latest. He said that it, in view of the Red Army's unpreparedness, every diplomatic effort had to be made to prevent the Germans from launching an invasion in the summer of 1941.
He also said that depending on the international circumstances, the war with Germany could take the form of an defensive war inside the frontiers of the USSR (worst-case scenario) or, what was preferable for obvious reasons, a preemptive attack on Germany. (Who wants to wage war in its own country?)
It is important to put things in context.
cheers!
We have known for decades that Stalin specifically spoke on May 5, 1941, about the inevitability of a clash with Germany in 1942 at the latest. He said that it, in view of the Red Army's unpreparedness, every diplomatic effort had to be made to prevent the Germans from launching an invasion in the summer of 1941.
He also said that depending on the international circumstances, the war with Germany could take the form of an defensive war inside the frontiers of the USSR (worst-case scenario) or, what was preferable for obvious reasons, a preemptive attack on Germany. (Who wants to wage war in its own country?)
It is important to put things in context.
cheers!