How Churchill Won the Battle of Britain

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Iron_Bismarck
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How Churchill Won the Battle of Britain

Post by Iron_Bismarck »

Abstract:

Winston Churchill defeated Adolf Hitler in the Battle of Britain by goading Hitler into a "colossal blunder".

Background:

The Battle of Britain of 1940 would ultimately consist of three (3) distinct phases. Hitler's goal was to invade and conquer Britain, an operation code-named Sea Lion. This required German Air Superiority over Britain (to guard the German invasion fleets), which in turn required the destruction the Royal Air Force (RAF). The Battle of Britain, therefore, amounted to Hitler's attempt to annihilate the RAF.

Phase 1: July - August, 1940

According to the documentary I Was There: The Blitz:
For two months, the RAF were goaded almost daily into costly battles with the Luftwaffe. This, the first phase of the Battle of Britain, beginning in July and lasting until early August, saw the Luftwaffe launch a series of attacks on channel ports and convoys. In these, the first six weeks of the Battle of Britain, the badly outnumbered British fighters suffered heavy losses... during this phase alone, 124 RAF fighters were lost.
The narrator goes on to add:
The RAF was repeatedly tempted to throw everything it had at the Luftwaffe. But this was a temptation that had to be resisted: in a war of attrition with Europe's largest Air Force, the RAF would certainly lose.
Thus, after six weeks of having failed to lure the RAF out to its own destruction, the Germans changed tactics. Thus began phase two of the Battle of Britain.

Phase 2: August 12-19, 1940

According to the documentary I Was There: The Blitz:
The second phase of the German offensive began on August the 12th. It was an attempt to create gaps in the British defenses by destroying key radar stations and air fields. It was to push [British] Fighter Command to the limit of its endurance.
The scale of the German onslaught staggered the British forces. The narrator continues:
On Eagle Day, August the 13th, 1400 German aircraft were launched in an all out offensive. It was the largest air attack yet seen in the Battle of Britain: 12 RAF airfields and control centers were bombed and strafed. Over the next 3 days of raids, unprecedented in air warfare, the number of attacking German aircraft increased to 1800. Two aircraft factories were hit, yet more air fields were badly damaged, and in one air raid alone, 46 British aircraft were destroyed in their hangars.
According to the the documentary Great Blunders of WWII: The Pilot Who Bombed London, bad weather grounded the Luftwaffe from the 19th to the 24th of August (after only 1 week of sustained attacks). During this lull, Herman Goering ordered the Luftwaffe to plan night attacks against British industrial centers. Most of these centers were located in the British midlands northwest of London. However, German flight-paths to these centers from their French air fields lay close to the outskirts of London. German bombers would rely upon Dead Reckoning navigation, which was notoriously inaccurate, and this would precipitate the chain of events that cost Germany the air war over Britain.

Phase 3: August 24 - September 6, 1940

According to the documentary I Was There: The Blitz:
The period from the 24th of August to the 6th of September was the 3rd phase of the Battle of Britain, and the most dangerous time yet for [British] Fighter Command. In the 2 weeks of this critical period, Fighter Command lost 200 more planes than it managed to shoot down. Many of these losses came on the ground, as the Germans launched wave after wave of raids on sector air fields -- 6 out of 7 of which were critically damaged. 231 pilots were killed, wounded, or missing.
According to the the documentary Great Blunders of WWII: The Pilot Who Bombed London, on the night of 24 August -- the first night of renewed German raids after the bad weather cleared -- a flight of 12 German night bombers strayed over the outskirts of London. This was due to a combination of navigational errors (see the comments on Dead Reckoning above) and poor visibility. Probably due to aircraft damage, "at least one of these bombers" jettisoned its payload, which fell over the outskirts of London.

It may also be worth noting that, according to the documentary I Was There: The Blitz, the British blackout of London was so effective that the streets were "pitch black". And surveys showed that 1 out of every 5 people had actually suffered some kind of accident related injury due to the lack of visibility. It therefore seems possible that the German night bombers did not realize they were over London at all.

The bombing of London infuriated Hitler, who had issued standing orders expressly forbidding Terror Bombing of civilian centers. The bomber crews in question were severely reprimanded for their mistake, and, according to legend, they were sent to the infantry as punishment. Never-the-less, Churchill immediately ordered a "retaliatory raid" on Berlin. The next night, on the 25th of August, 81 RAF bombers raided Berlin. According to the documentary War Zone: Hitler's War (Pt I), they did so using incendiary bombs -- on Churchill's personal orders.

According to the documentary Great Blunders of WWII: The Pilot Who Bombed London, this was a terrible embarrasment for Hitler and Goering. Goering had publically boasted, to German and world audiences, that no British plane would ever fly over the Third Reich. Furthermore, Goering had added, "if they do, you can call me Meyer". This was the German equivalent of the infamous American name "Mudd". Churchill's "retaliatory raid" had made the Luftwaffe Reichsmarschall "Herman Mudd".

However, contrary to popular perception, Hitler held back and did not rescind his prohibition on Terror Bombing British cities. Instead, he wisely maintained pressure on the RAF air fields and sector stations. According to the documentary I Was There: The Blitz, phase 2 of the Battle of Britain had already pushed British Fighter Command "to the limit of its endurance", and phase 3 was more damaging still. Indeed, according to the documentary Battlefield Britain: Battle of Britain 1940AD, the outnumbered RAF pilots were on continual standby in readiness for the incessant German air attacks. Often staying awake for days at a time, by early Septemeber they were on the brink of total physical exhaustion and collapse. Something had to give, if Britain was to emerge triumphant.

Wily Winston Churchill Suckers Hitler into Blunder

We showed above that Churchill's "retaliatory raid" on Berlin did not immediately prompt Hitler to change his strategy in the Battle of Britain. Indeed, according to the documentary Great Blunders of WWII: The Pilot Who Bombed London, Churchill ordered two additional "retaliatory raids" on Berlin -- both while the skies over London were quiet and clear. These Terror Bombings occurred on the night of 28 August, and again on the night of 3 September:
The Luftwaffe kept well away from London during the next few days and nights. But RAF bomber command did not observe the same policy towards Berlin. It was now firmly on their list of targets, and they returned to it on the night of the 28/29th of August. This time, German civilians were killed... [A] third RAF attack on the night of September 3/4th caused further death and destruction.
Berliners were increasingly outraged, especially by the loss of prestige from Goering's "stupid boast", and the German press condemned the "cowardly British attacks" calling the British bombers "pirates". The now thrice shamed Herman "Mudd" Goering and the Nazi High Command feared civil unrest in Berlin.

Bowing to this public pressure, Hitler addressed the German Nation the following night (4 September) at the Berlin Sports Palace with a powerful speech movingly portrayed in the movie Battle of Britain (1969):
When the British Air Force drops 2 or 3 or 4 thousand kilograms of bombs, we will in one night drop 150, 250, 300 or 400 thousand kilograms. When they declare that they will increase their attacks on our cities then we will smash their cities to the ground.
Adolf Hitler
Berlin Sports Palace, 4 September 1940

Great Blunders of WWII: The Pilot Who Bombed London
Battle of Britain (1969)
For two more days, the Germans continued to raid British air fields and sector stations. According to the documentary War Zone: Hitler's War (Pt I):
On August the 25th british bombers appear over Berlin, dropping incendiary bombs on Churchill's personal orders. The raid is repeated [on Aug. 28], and many civilians die. Hitler hurries back to berlin, but still draws back from attacking London. Rudolf Hess is asked to begin secret talks with his high level contacts in Britain.

The raids continue, and on September the 4th, Hitler announces in a forceful, fiery, mocking oration at the Sports Palace that if the British bombing of cities continues, he will now strike back:

If they proclaim they will attack our cities on a grand scale, we shall wipe their cities out.

Berlin is bombed again [on Sept. 6], and the next day Hitler sends his entire airforce to bomb the docks in East End of London... Hitler has no qualms now. Mr. Churchill has deliberately provoked these raids.

The War Zone: Hitler's War, Part I
Thus, not only did Churchill order the use of incendiary bombs from the very beginning, but he then ordered a bombing of Berlin after Rudolf Hess had already told the British government that the original Luftwaffe attack on London had been an accident, after the Luftwaffe had diligently avoided London as a token of fair play, and after Hitler had expressly warned that further attacks on Berlin would provoke Germany's retaliation (!). So it is entirely unsurprising, nay, even clearly forseeable, that:
On Saturday September 7, German bombers attacked the London docks. That night, another 247 bombers, three times the number that had been attacking Berlin, raided the British capital again. 2000 Londoners were killed or injured in these two attacks. In what became nown as the Blitz, London was bombed every night but one during the next two months. Other British cities, as far north as Glasgow in Scotland, were also bombed. But none of this could disguise the fact that the Luftwaffe had failed. It had not destroyed the RAF, and therefore the invasion could not take place.
New Phase: the Blunder of The Blitz (from 7 September, 1940)

As mentioned above, according to the documentary Battlefield Britain: Battle of Britain 1940AD, the RAF pilots had been pushed to near total physical exhaustion and collapse. It argued that if Hitler had maintained his pressure on British air fields and sector stations, he would have won the Battle of Britain.

However, we have shown that Churchill's repeated "retaliatory" Terror Bombings of Berlin literally forced Hitler's hand (by shaming the Nazi Party leadership, and enraging the Germans' sense of pride). What is more, given Goering's "stupid boast", it predictably forced Hitler's hand. Hitler even recognized that Churchill had "goaded him into" his revenge bombings of London. Moreover still, Churchill had a supremely pressing motive to force Hitler into changing his focus from Fighter Command assets to London and other British cities: namely, to take pressure off his few and fully exhausted pilots.

Indeed, according to the documentary I Was There: The Blitz:
Turning his attention from bombing the fighter air fields to the bombing of London was Hitler's biggest mistake... the change in German tactics was a colossal blunder. The RAF had been forced close to breaking point by the constant attacks on air fields and sector stations. Now, it had gained a vital reprieve. But the price would be heavy -- tragedy for thousands of civilians.
Thus is revealed how Churchill won the Battle of Britain: Churchill intentionally goaded Hitler into diverting Luftwaffe attacks away from vital military targets towards expendible civilian targets. It was a cruel decision that cost thousands of Londoners their lives. But it saved the British Air Force, and thereby saved Britain from Nazi invasion. Provoking The Blitz was also a stunning propaganda victory for Churchill, as the Nazi bombing stiffened British public resolve to carry on towards final victory.
Last edited by Iron_Bismarck on Thu Apr 19, 2007 9:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Post by redcoat »

Oh dear :(
Here we go with the same old myths yet again :x
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Post by Liam »

Or in other words... peace-loving Adolf Hitler, the kindly and benevolent leader of free Europe, is goaded into using one of his philanthropic organisations (AKA the Luftwaffe) to bomb the evil British - and it's all because of the bloodthirsty and cynical actions of their tyrannical overlord, Churchill! :wink:
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Post by Reb »

I've heard the theory that Churchill bombed Berlin in order to get AH to retailiate and ease up the pressure on the RAF which was reeling by then.

I've never thought of that as a moral decision - just a decision to ensure the survival of his country at the expense of some casualties.

I can't speak to the truth of it. Just glad I'm not the guy who has to make those kind of decisions.

But it looks to this observer as if everyone suddenly just sorted decided to hell with morality - and took off the gloves and we're only just now trying to put them back on.

cheers
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Post by redcoat »

Reb wrote:I've heard the theory that Churchill bombed Berlin in order to get AH to retailiate and ease up the pressure on the RAF which was reeling by then.
all the evidence on the British side suggests that Churchill ordered the attacks on military related targets in or around Berlin as a PR exercise for the benefit of the British public, a case of "if you bomb our capitol we can bomb yours too".
The British never expected the Luftwaffe to change the focus of its whole campaign because of it, after all the Luftwaffe was already bombing British cities at night (with the sole exception of London), on a scale similar to the British attack, on a daily basis.
if in doubt, PANIC !!!!
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Post by Iron_Bismarck »

redcoat wrote:
Reb wrote:I've heard the theory that Churchill bombed Berlin in order to get AH to retailiate and ease up the pressure on the RAF which was reeling by then.
all the evidence on the British side suggests that Churchill ordered the attacks on military related targets in or around Berlin as a PR exercise for the benefit of the British public, a case of "if you bomb our capitol we can bomb yours too".
The British never expected the Luftwaffe to change the focus of its whole campaign because of it, after all the Luftwaffe was already bombing British cities at night (with the sole exception of London), on a scale similar to the British attack, on a daily basis.
According to the documentaries I sourced above, the Luftwaffe did not bomb any cities until after the attacks on London began. Prior to that, the only targets were air fields, sector stations, radar installations, and industrial targets. I suspect that your claim of night bombing of "cities" is a reference to Luftwaffe attacks on Industrial Parks -- which would obviously be near cities where the workers lived.
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Post by redcoat »

Iron_Bismarck wrote:[According to the documentaries I sourced above, the Luftwaffe did not bomb any cities until after the attacks on London began.
That just shows how bad they are :x
This site has the day by day campaign diaries of the RAF, including the night attacks of the Luftwaffe.
http://www.raf.mod.uk/bob1940/calendar.html
Prior to that, the only targets were air fields, sector stations, radar installations, and industrial targets. I suspect that your claim of night bombing of "cities" is a reference to Luftwaffe attacks on Industrial Parks -- which would obviously be near cities where the workers lived.
Industrial parks are a post war invention, in the days before most people had cars, they lived near to their work. It was quite normal for industry to be situated in the most highly populated part of town.

It should also be noted that the RAF was ordered to bomb only military related targets in and around Berlin, and if they couldn't find these targets to bring their bombs back
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Post by Liam »

The RAF had begun attacks on German soil in May 1940 and prior to Berlin had raided (amongst others) Hamburg, Bremen, Cologne, Hannover and Kiel. If Hitler and Goering were (so we are to believe) goaded into attacking British cities then they had plenty of reason to do so prior to any raid on Berlin.
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Post by phylo_roadking »

Industrial parks are a post war invention, in the days before most people had cars, they lived near to their work. It was quite normal for industry to be situated in the most highly populated part of town
Other way round, but same effect. people-heavy industries like textile, munitions except went to where a resource like water was available, THEN over decades if not centuries housing grew up around them. In britian's pre-war cities, middle-class areas and housing THEN grew up in the areas and pockets between these industrial populations.

Hence for example the loss of life in Belfast in April and May 1940; among the Luftwaffe's targets were Belfast's linen mills...while HUGE loss of life in the terraced housing surrounding the mills.
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Post by Iron_Bismarck »

Liam wrote:The RAF had begun attacks on German soil in May 1940 and prior to Berlin had raided (amongst others) Hamburg, Bremen, Cologne, Hannover and Kiel. If Hitler and Goering were (so we are to believe) goaded into attacking British cities then they had plenty of reason to do so prior to any raid on Berlin.
There is a difference between Berlin and other cities. Not only is Berlin the Capital of the Reich, but Hermann Goering had publically boasted that if Berlin were bombed, his name would be "Mudd" ("Meyer" in German).

The Berlin raids dramatically, and flagrantly, discredited the Nazi regime. Hitler showed great restraint, but after three consequetive raids from 25 August to 3 September — where the RAF dropped incendiary bombs, I believe on Churchill's personal orders no less — Hitler addressed Berliners in the Sports Palace on the night of 4 September. He promised that if Churchill attacked Berlin again, he would shower bombs on London.

Within 48 hours, Churchill had ordered a 4th attack on Berlin.

The next day (7 September), Hitler ended the Battle of Britain against RAF military targets, and began the Blitz against London and civilian ones.

This is obviously Churchill goading Hitler. Have I been clear? I'll be Hitler, you be Churchill. Let's role play. I tell you, "If you attack Berlin again, I will attack London". You attack Berlin again.

You then act "surprised" and "shocked" and claim that I deserve to "reap the whirlwind" for my evil unprovoked Terror Bombing of London??

That might work as Propaganda with a powerful, emotional classical music score behind your words.

But in cold, hard, rational calculus, you knew I was going to attack London... and you had tremendous motive to trick me into doing so, b/c I was within a day or two of wiping out the RAF, but now they're in the free and clear as I pummel (militarily expendible) civilian targets.

And you go on to win the battle.

That is what Churchill did. He made a cruel call, he won. It was a harsh war.
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Post by Iron_Bismarck »

phylo_roadking wrote:
Industrial parks are a post war invention, in the days before most people had cars, they lived near to their work. It was quite normal for industry to be situated in the most highly populated part of town
Other way round, but same effect. people-heavy industries like textile, munitions except went to where a resource like water was available, THEN over decades if not centuries housing grew up around them. In britian's pre-war cities, middle-class areas and housing THEN grew up in the areas and pockets between these industrial populations.

Hence for example the loss of life in Belfast in April and May 1940; among the Luftwaffe's targets were Belfast's linen mills...while HUGE loss of life in the terraced housing surrounding the mills.
I understand that this is called "collateral damage".

There is a big difference, at least conceptually, between "collateral damage" and Terror Bombing.

The former is, you aim for a legitimate military target, and innocent bystanders bite it.

The latter is, you aim for innocent bystanders, who are no longer bystanders but the intended target.

The former is "oops"...

The latter is "ha ha ha".

There is a difference.

Yes, early on in 1940, the RAF raided German cities in the Ruhr industrial heartland. And when stray bombs blew up an orphanage, Goebbels had a field day. Apparently, around the same time, civilians in Belfast were also killed.

But everyone on this thread agrees that neither side attacked the other's Capital... and my video sources said that both sides had standing orders not to Terror Bomb. There is no inconsistency.

Yet, according to my sources above, Germany accidentally bombed the outskirts of London on the night of 24/25 August. Germany appologized through back channels (so Churchill knew it was a mistake) and stayed well away from London. This amounts to a war-time appology, "hey man" you say with hands up, "I didn't mean that."

In response, Churchill attacked Berlin the next day, nobody was killed. Nothing would have happened if that had been the end of it, and the Luftwaffe would have pounded the RAF out of the skies.

But 3 days later, Churchill sent his bombers back, with incendiary bombs, and hundreds of civilians died — dozens of times more than in London on the 24/25th. And, to make matters worse, a few days later Churchill sent his bombers back again and more civilians died.

All this time, Germany is appologizing to Britain through back channels. Churchill's effective response to Germany cannot be printed in polite language (!). Suffice it to say, he gave Hitler the bird big time.

Then Hitler spoke at the Sports Palace the next night (4 Sept), and warned Churchill.

Then w/in 48 hours Churchill attacked Berlin yet again.

It is quite clear. The desperation of the RAF was critical. Their pilots were nearing physical exhaustion from being on duty for 24, 36, even 48 hours straight, cat napping in their cockpits to always be ready with their few remaining fighters. Etc etc etc.

Churchill goaded Hitler into saving the RAF by attacking Berlin over and over until he had killed hundreds of Berliners and forced Hitler and Goering's hands. When the first raid missed, and killed no one, he sent 3 more back to make sure he did his dirty deed.

That decision cost 40,000 British civilians their lives in the Blitz that Hitler unleashed in retaliation...

but it saved the 400 remaining Spitfires and their pilots...

and won the day.

Cruel decision.
Game winner.
If you don't like making those kinds of decisions, don't run for PM of major power.
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Post by Iron_Bismarck »

phylo_roadking wrote:
Industrial parks are a post war invention, in the days before most people had cars, they lived near to their work. It was quite normal for industry to be situated in the most highly populated part of town
Other way round, but same effect. people-heavy industries like textile, munitions except went to where a resource like water was available, THEN over decades if not centuries housing grew up around them. In britian's pre-war cities, middle-class areas and housing THEN grew up in the areas and pockets between these industrial populations.

Hence for example the loss of life in Belfast in April and May 1940; among the Luftwaffe's targets were Belfast's linen mills...while HUGE loss of life in the terraced housing surrounding the mills.
I understand that this is called "collateral damage".

There is a big difference, at least conceptually, between "collateral damage" and Terror Bombing.

The former is, you aim for a legitimate military target, and innocent bystanders bite it.

The latter is, you aim for innocent bystanders, who are no longer bystanders but the intended target.

The former is "oops"...

The latter is "ha ha ha".

There is a difference.

Yes, early on in 1940, the RAF raided German cities in the Ruhr industrial heartland. And when stray bombs blew up an orphanage, Goebbels had a field day. Apparently, around the same time, civilians in Belfast were also killed.

But everyone on this thread agrees that neither side attacked the other's Capital... and my video sources said that both sides had standing orders not to Terror Bomb. There is no inconsistency.

Yet, according to my sources above, Germany accidentally bombed the outskirts of London on the night of 24/25 August. Germany appologized through back channels (so Churchill knew it was a mistake) and stayed well away from London. This amounts to a war-time appology, "hey man" you say with hands up, "I didn't mean that."

In response, Churchill attacked Berlin the next day, nobody was killed. Nothing would have happened if that had been the end of it, and the Luftwaffe would have pounded the RAF out of the skies.

But 3 days later, Churchill sent his bombers back, with incendiary bombs, and hundreds of civilians died — dozens of times more than in London on the 24/25th. And, to make matters worse, a few days later Churchill sent his bombers back again and more civilians died.

All this time, Germany is appologizing to Britain through back channels. Churchill's effective response to Germany cannot be printed in polite language (!). Suffice it to say, he gave Hitler the bird big time.

Then Hitler spoke at the Sports Palace the next night (4 Sept), and warned Churchill.

Then w/in 48 hours Churchill attacked Berlin yet again.

It is quite clear. The desperation of the RAF was critical. Their pilots were nearing physical exhaustion from being on duty for 24, 36, even 48 hours straight, cat napping in their cockpits to always be ready with their few remaining fighters. Etc etc etc.

Churchill goaded Hitler into saving the RAF by attacking Berlin over and over until he had killed hundreds of Berliners and forced Hitler and Goering's hands. When the first raid missed, and killed no one, he sent 3 more back to make sure he did his dirty deed.

That decision cost 40,000 British civilians their lives in the Blitz that Hitler unleashed in retaliation...

but it saved the 400 remaining Spitfires and their pilots...

and won the day.

Cruel decision.
Game winner.
If you don't like making those kinds of decisions, don't run for PM of a major power.
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Post by lwd »

Iron_Bismarck wrote:...

There is a big difference, at least conceptually, between "collateral damage" and Terror Bombing.
Indeed and you have not shown that any of the British raids prior to 1941 fit in the former catagory.

It is quite clear. The desperation of the RAF was critical. Their pilots were nearing physical exhaustion from being on duty for 24, 36, even 48 hours straight, cat napping in their cockpits to always be ready with their few remaining fighters.
Where did you get this from? Since most of the German attacks were daylight attacks and few of the RAF fighters were night fighters why would they be on duty for even 18 hours strait. Also note that the LW pilots were spending as much or more time flying. Looks to me like more counter factual assumptions.
....
That decision cost 40,000 British civilians their lives in the Blitz that Hitler unleashed in retaliation...

but it saved the 400 remaining Spitfires and their pilots...

and won the day.
The attack on London was planned anyway. The RAF was not in danger of loosing all of the above planes as they would have withdrawn them if things got too bad. The day was already won. Counter factual assumptions seldom produce logical conclusions.
Last edited by lwd on Mon May 21, 2007 6:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by raj-rif »

Iron_Bismarck wrote: It is quite clear. The desperation of the RAF was critical. Their pilots were nearing physical exhaustion from being on duty for 24, 36, even 48 hours straight, cat napping in their cockpits to always be ready with their few remaining fighters. Etc etc etcThat decision cost 40,000 British civilians their lives in the Blitz that Hitler unleashed in retaliation...

but it saved the 400 remaining Spitfires and their pilots...

and won the day.

Cruel decision.
Game winner.
If you don't like making those kinds of decisions, don't run for PM of a major power.
you are forgetting that fighter command were rotating squadrons whilst the germans thought they were all in the south, when a Squadron was all in it was rotated to the north for a rest, hence when the germans thought they could make a raid into the north from norway and denmark against undefended targets (is that not a terror raid in its own right as they thought their was no defence) they were met by spitfire and hurricanes from around Newcastle and Middlesborough and all the raiders were shot down.
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Post by Hop »

There is a difference between Berlin and other cities. Not only is Berlin the Capital of the Reich, but Hermann Goering had publically boasted that if Berlin were bombed, his name would be "Mudd" ("Meyer" in German).
No, Goering made that boast about the Ruhr, not Berlin. And Meier is simply a common German name, it has no negative connotations (other than commonness). It would be the same as Churchill saying "you can call me Smith".
The Berlin raids dramatically, and flagrantly, discredited the Nazi regime. Hitler showed great restraint,
Can't you see the huge double standard here? The Germans sending over hundreds of bombers, killing upwards of a thousand civilians, is "restraint". The British sending over dozens of bombers, killing dozens of civilians, is "goading" the Germans.
but after three consequetive raids from 25 August to 3 September
The first of which was launched after the fourth German raid on London. 3 British raids on Berlin justify, indeed make inevitable, the German switch to terror bombing, but 4 German raids on London do not even justify minor raids on military targets in Berlin? Your double standard is truly amazing.
where the RAF dropped incendiary bombs, I believe on Churchill's personal orders no less
No, incendiary bombs were pretty common at the time. The Germans were unloading thousands of them over Britain.

Take for example this extract from the Wehrmacht High Command war diary, 29th August:
On 28th August and on the night 28/29th August, the Luftwaffe committed a total strength of 400 bomber and 576 fighter aircraft against England. Among other raids, 722 demolition and 6,480 incendiary bombs were dropped on Liverpool and Birkenhead during the night.
722 demolition bombs, and 6,480 incendiaries on Liverpool. On the same day, the diary also reports:
During the night of 28/29 August, British bombers raided Greater Berlin for the first time. 8 demolition and a great number of incendiary bombs were dropped. The major part of these bombs was dropped on residential areas near Goerlitz railroad station. 8 civilians were killed, 21 heavily and 7 were slightly wounded
8 bombs on Berlin.

722 bombs is "restraint" and 8 bombs is "goading"? That's the biggest double standard I have ever seen.
Hitler addressed Berliners in the Sports Palace on the night of 4 September. He promised that if Churchill attacked Berlin again, he would shower bombs on London.
He had already given permission for attacks on London before the 30th August.
The next day (7 September), Hitler ended the Battle of Britain against RAF military targets, and began the Blitz against London and civilian ones.
No, on the 7th September the Luftwaffe switched to their new tactic, which they hoped would "finish off" the RAF.

The problem for the Germans was that they believed the kill claims their pilots were filing (they were about 3 times actual RAF losses) and their intelligence branch greatly underestimated British aircraft production. The Germans thought that the RAF was on its last legs, and the remaining fighters would be sucked in to a single large battle over London where the Luftwaffe could destroy them.

It's something the Luftwaffe had been pushing for for weeks. Indeed, the Wehrmacht High Command war diary uses the lack of permission for such a raid on London as an excuse as to why the RAF hadn't been destroyed.
This is obviously Churchill goading Hitler. Have I been clear?
You've clearly been wrong. Almost every "fact" you put forward has been wrong, it's therefore no surprise the conclusions you draw are wrong also. Though I suspect you drew your conclusions and fitted the facts to them, rather than the other way around.
I'll be Hitler, you be Churchill. Let's role play. I tell you, "If you attack Berlin again, I will attack London". You attack Berlin again.
Only it didn't happen like that, did it.

I'll be Hitler, you be Churchill. Look, I've bombed London. What are you going to do about it?

Look, I've bombed London again. What are you going to do about it?

Look, I've bombed London yet again. What are you going to do about it?

Look, I've bombed London for a fourth time. What are you going to do about it?
You then act "surprised" and "shocked" and claim that I deserve to "reap the whirlwind" for my evil unprovoked Terror Bombing of London??
Let's see. The Germans bombed London first. And second. And third. And fourth. And sixth. And then then they began area bombing cities at night. Damn right they deserved some payback.

Harris said it best, I think:
The Nazis entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everyone else, and nobody was going to bomb them. At Rotterdam, London, Warsaw, and half a dozen other places, they put their rather naive theory into operation. They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind
But in cold, hard, rational calculus, you knew I was going to attack London..
No, the British knew the Germans HAD attacked London, on 4 occasions.
and you had tremendous motive to trick me into doing so, b/c I was within a day or two of wiping out the RAF,
Don't be so silly. As a picture says a thousand words, here is a graph:
Image

EDIT: Just noticed the dates have come out as 2007, they should of course be 1940. The weeks/months are accurate though.

The relevant dates are the 24th (the British launched their first raid on Berlin the day after, and the 7th September, the day the Luftwaffe switched to bombing London all out.

Can you point to where the RAF was two days from collapse?
And you go on to win the battle.
Well, if you look at the graph you will see the RAF was on a gradual upward trend, the Luftwaffe on a downward trend.

Two figures that don't fit on that chart, but illustrate the trend even further. On the 30th June, Fighter Command had 1,200 operational pilots. On the 7th September they had 1,381.

On the 1st June the Germans had 906 operational Bf 109 pilots, on the 1st September they had 735.

Who was winning before the Luftwaffe switched to bombing London? The RAF were, clearly. Faulty intelligence might have led the Luftwaffe to think they were winning, and overestimating the Luftwaffe might have made the RAF think they might be losing, but looking with hindsight at both sides shows the Luftwaffe were clearly failing throughout the battle.
Yes, early on in 1940, the RAF raided German cities in the Ruhr industrial heartland. And when stray bombs blew up an orphanage, Goebbels had a field day. Apparently, around the same time, civilians in Belfast were also killed.
The first RAF bombs were dropped on mainland Germany on the night of 10/11th May. Goebbels had a field day earlier in the day when bombers hit Freiburg, killing dozens of civilians, many of them children.

But it was German bombers that hit Freiburg, mistaking it for the French city of Dijon.
But everyone on this thread agrees that neither side attacked the other's Capital... and my video sources said that both sides had standing orders not to Terror Bomb. There is no inconsistency.
Neither side was engaging in deliberate terror bombing against the other (although the Germans had against Poland, Norway etc)

Neither side was bombing the other's capital.

That changed when the Germans bombed Croydon in mid August, then bombed London at night on at least 3 more occasions. Following that, the RAF began small raids against Berlin.

That remained the pattern until late August, when the Luftwaffe launched mass bombing raids against Liverpool and Glasgow. The RAF continued to launch small bombing raids against German military targets.

Then, from 7th September, the Luftwaffe began area bombing London, and other British cities. The RAF did not respond with their first area bombing raid until the 14/15 December, with an attack on Mannheim.
But 3 days later, Churchill sent his bombers back, with incendiary bombs, and hundreds of civilians died — dozens of times more than in London on the 24/25th.
Actually 8 Germans died in Berlin. A small fraction of the 60 killed in the first German bombing raid on Croydon.
All this time, Germany is appologizing to Britain through back channels.
Source for this claim? And did they apologise for all the other raids on London?
It is quite clear. The desperation of the RAF was critical.
No. To begin with, the first RAF raid on Berlin was on the 25th, at which time the RAF was having a rather easy time of it in the battle.

Secondly, the British "desperation" was rather a fear that losses had begun, by the end of August, to outstrip supply, and that eventually the battle might be lost.

See the meeting at the Air Ministry with Dowding on the morning of the 7th September, when Dowding said the RAF was "preparing to go downhill". He unveiled proposals then that would enable the RAF to continue at the same level of pressure for months.

Churchill, of course, was probably a good deal more sanguine. He had access to Ultra (Dowding did not until later), and so had a better idea of the state the Luftwaffe was actually in.
Their pilots were nearing physical exhaustion from being on duty for 24, 36, even 48 hours straight, cat napping in their cockpits to always be ready with their few remaining fighters. Etc etc etc.
Actually the RAF pilots were in a much better state than the Luftwaffe. They were still receiving leave, and the British practice of having more planes and pilots in a squadron than they used at any one time meant the hours were not excessive. (RAF squadron establishment was something like 16 aircraft and 20 pilots, but a squadron only sent 12 pilots into battle, often less)

Coupled with that, a large part of the RAF was based in the North and West, out of reach of the Luftwaffe. 11 Group was the primary defence, and remained on call, but 11 Group comprised a lot less than 50% of the RAF front line fighter strength.

And specific squadrons were allocated for night fighting, so daylight fighter pilots rarely had to operate at night.
Churchill goaded Hitler into saving the RAF by attacking Berlin over and over until he had killed hundreds of Berliners and forced Hitler and Goering's hands.
Churchill responded to German attacks with much smaller attacks, that killed far less Berliners than the Luftwaffe had already killed Londoners. The "hundreds" figure is pure fantasy.
That decision cost 40,000 British civilians their lives in the Blitz that Hitler unleashed in retaliation...
No. The RAF's defeat of the Luftwaffe in the daylight battle cost 40,000 British lives in the Blitz, because unable to invade, and unable to bomb in daylight, the only option the Germans had was to try to bomb Britain into submission at night.
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