The 2nd Battle of Britain

[EK II]

This is an attempt at a What-If? scenario, which I'd like to hear what people think about.

The premises are these:

- It's the summer of 1941.

- To this point, the war has progressed historically; the 1st Battle of Britain was fought the previous summer, and as a result of the German defeat, Operation Sea Lion was postponed indefinetely.

- The Luftwaffe has been rebuilt to make good its losses and introduce new types of aircraft.

- The principal fighter type is the Me 109F with belly tanks, and the first examples of the FW 190 have entered service, proving superior to the Spitfire V.

- The bomber force is made up of He 111 and Ju 88. The Me 110 has been turned into a low-level heavy fighter bomber and night intruder. The Ju 87 is being held in reserve.

- Hitler has been persuaded to forego attacking the Soviet Union as long as Britain remains undefeated.

- No coup occurred in Yugoslavia, so the Germans have a (somewhat) secure Balkan flank.

- Italy has not attacked Greece, content to watch them from Albania; in North Africa, the war is at a stalemate (I know, that's the weakest part of the background )


My question is now this:

- Given the experiences of the previous summer, could the Germans do in 1941 what they failed to do in 1940?

[Kitsune]

Without going into detail here:

It is all a matter of commitment on Nazi Germanies behalf. If the situation really would have comes down to an 1 on 1 confrontation between Germany and Britain with Hitler truly committing the German industrial ressources and possibilites, the chances to win would have lain heavily on the German side.

In the first Battle of Britain the Luftwaffe had the problem that its aircraft were more designed to give tactical support for the ground troops, not to wage a war against targets in distant Britain. Nonetheless, the Royal Airforce was close to defeat at times. Besides, the attempt was a short lived one, the preparations for Barbarossa soon began to reduce the abilites of the Luftwaffe.

If in a second confrontation Hitler had really concentrated on achieveing the goal to annihilate the RAF, chances that he would have succeeded are very good. The German aircraft technology was at least as advanced as the British one and the German industry could build much more aircraft than the British one, if it had to.

But this all would have amounted to nothing if Hitler, after wearing the RAF down and on the verge of ordering Sealion, would have found out that Stalin indeed had planned to exploit the situation...and had attacked. Wether he wanted or not is still debated today, in any case Hitler did not know what Stalin would do or not and therefore could not afford the luxury to ignore the Sovietunion. That is why the situation was never a true 1 on 1 struggle between Germany and Britain...which was lucky for Britain.

[Jexter]

So let's say in '41 Germany occupies The Balkans and starts a war with Soviet Union. The soviets are defeated in lets say... '42 winter... What then? Woul Britain have survived without th help of USA?

[kramer]

So in this 1 year reprise for the German air to 're-arm',the Brits stand idlely by? No increase in Spit production/pilot training? Hitler still has to cross the channel,something the Royal Navy could have a say-so about.

[Liam]

The He111 and Ju88 are now opposed by an experienced and expanded RAF Fighter Command flying cannon-armed planes that cause considerably more damage than their machine-gun armed ancestors of 1940. The Lufwaffe have still not understood the importance of the British's radar and linked fighter control, either.

The 109 and 190 indeed have the edge over the sluggish MkV Spit but, alas, a 190 is shot down on the first day of this conflict almost intact and the MkIX is rushed into production and soon reasserts air superiority over its now outclassed Luftwaffe opponents. The Me110's new role 'on the deck' sees it hacked down in droves once again as its lack of manouverability and poor acceleration are worsened by increased bomb loads. Its role as a night intruder is slightly more successful but the RAF's Beaufighter counter-measure is proving a formidable opponent.

After each side has suffered severe losses in men and material, they both retire to lick their wounds. The biggest problem for the Luftwaffe has been the death of numerous experienced flyers such as Galland and the decimation of the Me110 fleets. Now there is practically no nachtjager force to counter the increasingly destructive RAF heavy bomber raids. Goering is soon arrested and shot for treason and Heydrich takes over command of the Luftwaffe!

[Will]

okay thats an interesting one!

There is no possible way that britain could have survived without the help of the united -states we were out classed and outnumbered. the atantic convoys were losing increasing amounts of shipping to the wolf packs.

Although i have to concur that a second battle of britain would have been a bloody and protracted affair that would have resulted in stalemate


Also even assuming that air superiority was gained by the germans (eventually) as was previousley stated they still would have had to deal with tyhe royal navy a daunting prospect when thier own navy was (save for the u-boats) virtually impotent.

Although I suppose the fallshirmjaeger could have provided a bridge-head to aid the wehrmacht when and if they hit the beaches (much like the allies did the night before the landings)

anyway this has given much food for thought!-Ta

[Jexter]

In my oppinion, if germany would gained air supioriority then there would be quite less problem with the Royal Navy... Dive bombers and torpedo planes would have eventually destroyed british navy... as they did invading crete... air superiority=dead navy :]

[Will]

thats as may be but even so, they still could have hit the invasion hard enough to bloody thier noses for them, also its likely that the invasion fleet would have been sailing under the cover of night, which would make an airstrike that bit harder. i'm not saying that the invasion would'nt have gone ahead just that they probabley would have been hit quite hard b4 thay reached English shores.

[Jexter]

the invasion won't be started if the royal navy wouldn't be sunk... as I said if german have air superiority then british navy is dead... and then no huge cassualties during the invasion :)

[kramer]

Remember how many ships it took for the D-Day invasion? Realistically,could Germany muster even 1/2 of that? And keep it supplied? C'mon! Do you think Churchill would sacrifice all his planes against Luftwaffe bombers and keep nothing in reserve against an invasion? In 1940 the R.Navy had almost 90 destroyers ,even more since we're talking about '41.

[Will]

okay, so the royal navy is the real problem, how would you go about nuetralising that threat? with air superiority gained (Although at an extremeley high cost) would the luftwaffe still have the power to attack the royal navy en masse?.

Or more sensibley why not co-ordinate a hunt and kill policy between the u-boat wolf packs and the luftwaffe Kondors? however the problem there then would be pulling the u-boats off the merchant shipping meaning more vital supplies getting through to the U.k the real problem here is time, would the 'pact of steel' hold long enough to re-equip the luftwaffe whilst similtaneousley keeping up the preassure on the royal navy?. its a logistical nightmare!

also another valid point was raised about the real lack of transport shipping, if you can only get so many across at a time why not dump the full strength of the fallschirm at one specified point create a bridge head and hold that as long as humanley possible, while the wehrmacht catches up? funnily enough though I still can't help but think even with airsuperiorty and a nuetralised royal navy that germany would have still had one hell of a fight on her hands.

[sid guttridge]

Hi EKII,

I think the differential in air power was most heavily in favour of Germany in mid 1940. If memory serves me correctly, the UK considerably out produced the Reich in aircraft in 1940-41, so I think the odds against the Luftwaffe in 1941 would have been greater than in 1940.

And one thing would not have changed - every German airman brought down over the UK would have been permanently lost, whereas a high proportion of British pilots shot down over the UK would have lived to fight another day.

Nope. I don't think BoB II was a starter, unless it was launched by an entirely unhistorical Luftwaffe.

Cheers,

Sid.

[dazedandconfused]

The Royal Navy wouldn't even have had to waste shells on the invasion barges. Drive a Destroyer through the Channel at 30+ knots and the bow wave would be enough to swamp '44 vintage landing craft, never mind the Rhine barges that the Germans planned on using in '40 (and I assume in '41). Take 40 or 50 Destroyers at 30+ knots and the invasion doesn't even reach the beach!

[Will]

Yeah but would it really have been such a non-starter?, Sid makes a good point as usual in regards to the luftwaffe pilots.

However I'm still not completley convinced that it would really have been such a bleak outlook for a renewed attempt on England. Although I have to say that england was alot better organised and alot more prepared in '41 as opposed to '40 so the germans would have had a much harder and bloodier fight on thier hands in seelowe had gone ahead a year later than originally planned. harder but not impossible I just think it would have depended on who had the stronger will to prevail and i'm sorry but my money would have been on Germany winning in the end.

[sid guttridge]

Hi Will,

With the UK in defence of its own soil, I would suggest that the issue of "will" might well favour the British. If you add in that the UK was producing more aircraft than Germany and, unlike Germany, would retain many of its downed aircrew, I would suggest that German prospects in a renewed Battle of Britain in 1941 were not good. And this is before taking up dazedandconfused's well made point that, even without air superiority, the Royal Navy could still have dominated the Channel for long enough to make any German seaborne invasion impracticable.

Cheers,

Sid.