Without a US intervention in WWI, what would have happened?

[Kitsune]

Another of those infamous "what if?" questions. But perhaps an important one, since many historians regard WWI as the "primeval catastrophe of the 20th century"...
So, what would have happened if the USA had stayed neutral? Would it have made any significant difference? And if, what would the outcome have been? How, do you think, would the world (mainly Europe of course) have been like in 1940?

[Brian67]

Another of those infamous "what if?" questions. But perhaps an important one, since many historians regard WWI as the "primeval catastrophe of the 20th century"...
So, what would have happened if the USA had stayed neutral? Would it have made any significant difference? And if, what would the outcome have been? How, do you think, would the world (mainly Europe of course) have been like in 1940?

I think Germany and Austria would have lost the war as well, just some month later.
But it's a interesting question, because it would have been possible, that they would not have lost the war, and then history would have taken a very different way.

[Patrick]

I think its very likely that a different position would have results. The Germans had defeated the Russians in the East and perhaps their 1918 spring offensive would have succeeded without American troops.

An interesting "what if" can be found a book "The Pity of War" by Niall Ferguson. He puts forth an interesting proposition that a German victory would have resulted in a continental Europe united under German economic domination.

[Arne]

Later on Trotzki would have beaten the s... out of the the Kaiser's Army. The Russians where not finished at all, they just claimed they where beaten and gave the germans what they ever asked for at Brest Litovsk. I imagin the russian delegation signing the treaty with one hand behind the back, fingers crossed (I hope this expression is valid in other parts of the world...)

I guess they had a great laugh on the austro/german delegation when alone. The Bolshis just fullfilled their promise to the russian people to end the war and traded land for time. So much land that it was reasonable to belive for them that Germany would not be able to secure such vast areas on a sustaint period of time.

[Dackel Staffel]

Hi,

Without US troops in Europe, maybe the germans would have had an another strategy. I mean :
Did the germans signed a peace treaty with Russia in the way it has occured ?
Did the germans launch their spring offensive in 1918 in the west ? One of the reason of this offensive was to win the war before the arrival of several thousand of american soldiers. In 1917, Fance had nearly nothing to send to the front as reinforcement. Almost all the men able to fight was already on the front. 250 000 americans more each month was a real help.
Just ideas.

So long.

[sid guttridge]

Hi Guys,

I would suggest that the direct intervention of US troops was of limited significance on the outcome of WWI.

However, the threat of massive US intervention certainly forced on the Germans the requirement to finish the war quickly and provoked the accelerated timing of the Kaiserschlacht of March 1918.

The Kaiserschlacht was defeated without decisive American intervention, so Germany almost certainly couldn't have won the war even before significant US forces entered the field. However, it could certainly have fought on for longer in the hope of a compromise peace, which might have been less brutal than Versailles.

It should also be remembered that Germany was finally exposed by the collapse of all its allies, which occurred without any direct US intervention on their fronts at all.

Cheers,

Sid.

[John Kilmartin]

Hi Kitsune,
If the US didn''t become involved the war would have extended into 1919 for sure and possibly early 1920. According to Dancock's biography of Currie, he would have replaced Haig as Commander of the BEF and Monash would have become his Chief of Staff. Now I don't know if this assertion is true or not but if it is that would definitely change the course of history at least in regard to Canada and Australia's input in the peace treaty negotiations, and their subsequent role within the Commonwealth.

Without the US troops their probably would have been little oppurtunity for intervention in Russia and consequently relations with France and Britain might have been more cordial.
There is also the possibility that the rapid rise in lynchings in the Southern US immediately after the war would not have occurred as many of the victims were returning servicemen.
Perhaps there would not have been the stab in the back story as the Germans might actually have to fight on their on lands.

[sid guttridge]

Hi John,

I wouldn't deny that Monash would have made an excellent Chief-of-Staff. However, I suspect that there were very powerful social prejudices that would have made this virtually impossible.

Firstly, he had been a civilian at the outbreak of war only four years previously and it is very unlikely that the pride of the British regular officer corps could have accepted his appointment.

Secondly, he was a colonial, which would also have made his appointment problematical for many metropolitan Brits.

Thirdly he was Jewish, which would have grated with the more bigoted society of the period.

Any one of these might on their own might not have been an obstacle. The UK had already had a Jewish prime minister and a colonial-born member of the cabinet, but the combination of all three would surely have made Monash's appointment as C-of-S of as hide bound and socially elitist an institution as the British Army highly unlikely.

Cheers,

Sid.

[redcoat]

Hi John,

I wouldn't deny that Monash would have made an excellent Chief-of-Staff. However, I suspect that there were very powerful social prejudices that would have made this virtually impossible.


Any one of these might on their own might not have been an obstacle. The UK had already had a Jewish prime minister and a colonial-born member of the cabinet, but the combination of all three would surely have made Monash's appointment as C-of-S of as hide bound and socially elitist an institution as the British Army highly unlikely.

Another major reason was his rank, or lack of it.
Monash had only just been promoted to lieutenant-general, there were dozens of general staff officers of higher rank than him.

ps The fact he was only a first generation Aussie of German parents didn't help his cause either

[Schultz]

Germany would have come out on top, no war in the east there food at home would get better, the moral of the british and french troops was worse at that time than the german troops.
British and French commanders sent troops to total slaughter everyday there men where not happy. Fresh happy americans willing to fight broke the lines, Germany had no fresh happy anything nor did france or britain, the front would have remained for long enough the german counter offensive broke england and france to at least the table as was close even when america was there.

What if china invaded argentina during the american revolution?


Schultz

[Dackel Staffel]

What if china invaded argentina during the american revolution?

Don't know, maybe Juan Peron would have been the last emperor. But surely China would have had a better soccer team.

So long.

[sid guttridge]

Or Argentina a worse one.......

Sid.

[Nibelung]

Germany had a good plan for 1918, since the revolution took place in Russia and relieved an almost 2000 km long frontline. The breakthrough in Tolmin meant, that the Italians no longer had the upper hand in the alpine regions. All is well for Germany to this point, the problem is, that it still had to fight a coallition in the west and to face a naval blocade. The army was still willing to fight although the leadership decided that they had enough ( the famous 'stab in the back' story )...I think there wouldn't be much improvement if the americans didn't stick their noses in. I think in the best scenario for Germany (if one can call it that) a treaty would be proposed because of the deplition (i hope i spelled it right) of forces.

best,
Nibelung

[T-6000]

Hmmm.....very interesting. IMHO, I think that without the U.S. involvement the Germans would have still lost. Both sides were exhausted (perhaps even on the brink of madness with this terrible and unecessary war dragging out for so damn long) but the germans still wouldn't have been able to stand out against the allied powers in the long run. Germany would have still lost, but the war would have dragged on for a little longer (perhaps even up to the early 20s) before Germany would surrender. Still though, it would have been nice if they just decided to cut their losses, relize that the great war was just a whole big minunderstanding and that they were all responcible for this stupid war, stop the war altogether, let bygones be bygones, and get on with their lives. Although there would still propably be tensions, things would have cooled off over in time (hopefully at least). But no, they just decided to just continue killing each other stupidly. Oh well, hopefully Europe will never do anything like this ever again.

[Igorn]

Patrick,

Some facts. First of all Germans did not defeat Russian Army in 1918. What really happened in 1917-1918 that Russian & Jewish communists (Lenin, Trotzky etc.) sponsored by Kaizer Germany performed the state coup in Russia and engaged Russia in the Civil war. In order to stay in power the communist leadership agreed to pay the bills in Brest -Litovsk to their German sponsors and satisfied the German demands. But the treaty Germans signed with communists were equal to signing treaty with the devil ' cause communists were not going to stick to this treaty and were preparing a communist revolution in Germany. And also don't confuse between the Russian Army and communists military formations in 1917-1918. The Russian Army did not exist after the communist coup of October 1917 but in the battlefield in 1917 Germans did not achieve any significant wins. The war was a trench war without any chance for Kaizer Germany to win. So, Germans should be gratefull to communists who prolonged Kaizer Germany existanse by a few months.

Best Regards from Russia,